3.24城市灾害综合风险评价.pdf

摘要
近年来,随着我国改革开放和现代化建设的开展,社会工业化与城市化程度在不断的
提高,城市灾害事故的发生也越来越频繁,且呈现出防治难度大、灾害种类多、事故发生
突然等特点,造成了大量的人员伤亡和财产损失。城市灾害风险评价在城市的防灾减灾工
作中起了重大作用,开展城市灾害风险评价研究工作刻不容缓。
为提高城市防灾减灾的能力,本文建立了赣州市灾害综合风险评价体系和评价模型,
并将赣州下属的 18 个市县作为评价单元进行实例研究,采取特尔菲法与层次分析法,确定
各指标权重,计算得出各评价单元的指标因子指数和风险值。分析表明:①各区县暴露-易
损性指数差别较大;②各区县的风险值基本处于风险等级的中段;③与广州和福建相接的
区县风险值高于其它区县风险值。
通过风险评价和实地考察,本文提出了完善赣州城市灾害综合风险管理的一些对策和
建议:①要编制城市安全规划并将其融入到城市规划中;②需完善城市灾害风险决策支持
系统和信息管理系统;③应在城市安全规划、厂址选择、工程建设等各项活动中引人风险
评价机制;④针对城市灾害的复杂性,必须建立完善的应急救援体系和编制科学的应急预
案;⑤进一步加强城市灾害风险预防与控制宣传,提高公众的灾害应对能力。

关键词:城市灾害;综合风险;评价;指标体系


















I
ABSTRACT
In recent years, as China's reform and opening up and modernization construction are
developing and the degree of social industrialization and social urbanization are ceaselessly
increasing, more and more frequent disaster accident of the city shows the control of accident is
difficult, species of disaster are many and the disaster happens abruptly. Since Urban Disaster
Risk Assessment plays an major role in the city's disaster prevention and mitigation work, such
that we should carry out research on urban disaster risk assessment early. To enhance the capacity
of urban disaster’s prevention and mitigation, Comprehensive risk assessment system and
assessment model are established in Ganzhou City. Moreover, by using the Delphi method and
the layer Analysis method, this paper investigates the eighteen affiliated Ganzhou Cities and
counties looked as a case to determine the weight of each index and obtain the evaluation unit
Indicators and risk factor index values. Analysis shows that: ① the county exposure -
vulnerability index vary greatly; ② the risk value of each county is basically in the middle level;
③the risk values of the countries which connecting with Guangzhou and Fujian are high than
other counties.
Through risk assessment and site visits, this paper presents some countermeasures and
suggestions to imp