高亮LED应用.pdf

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TheMarketOutlookforHigh-
BrightnessLEDsinLighting
Applications
InternationalWorkshoponStatus,Prospects,
andStrategiesforLEDsinGeneralLighting
May3-4,2007

StrategiesUnlimited
1:.
Outline
‰Introduction
‰HBLEDMarkets
‰Lighting
‰Outlook
22:.
HBLEDMarketAnalysis
‰Marketisworldwideinscope
„.,Europe,
Japan,Taiwan,,China,SEAsia
‰Marketanalyzedintermsofpackageddevices
(lamps,SMDs,multichip,high-powerpackages)
‰MaterialsincludeInGaAlP(red-orange-yellow)
andInGaN(blue,blue-green,green,white)
„Higherperformance,“qualified”devices
‰Marketsegmentedandsub-segmentedby
applicationsthathavesimilarfunctionality
33:.
HBLEDApplicationSegments
OtherMobileAppliances
Indicators,smalldisplays
Illumination
amusement,
HBLED
MarketSignsandDisplays
Signals
Automotive
44:.
Outline
‰Introduction
‰HBLEDMarkets
‰Applications
‰Lighting
‰Outlook
55:.
HBLEDMarketTrends
‰Marketcontinuedits“slowgrowth”phasein
2006–similarpatternsto2005
‰Overallmarketgrowthwas6%to$
‰Heavilyinfluencedbyongoingdeclineinmobile
phonemarket
‰Otherapplicationscontinuedtohaveattractive
growthrates
‰SubstantialASPerosionacrossmanyproducttypes
66:.
RecentMarketHistory
5,000
%/yrOther
4,000
Market
Illumination
Size
3,000
Signals
($Million)
44%/yr
2,000Automotive
Signs/Displays
1,000
MobileAppliances
0
200120022003200420052006
77:.
MarketGrowthWithoutMobile
Phones
2,500
Other
2,000
22%/yrIllumination
1,500
MarketSizeSignals
($Million)Automotive
1,000
Signs/Displays
500
OtherMobile
0
200120022003200420052006
88:.
2006MarketbyApplication
IlluminationOther
5%16%
Mobile
Signals
Appliances
2%
48%
Automotive
15%
(downfrom57%
Signs/
Displaysin2004)
14%
Total:$
99:.
2006MarketbyColor
RGB
InGaAlP
Multichip
ROY
7%
17%
InGaN
InGaN
White
Blue/Green
48%
28%
Total:$
1010:.
HBLEDUnitsandASPs

30
29%/
25
Unit

20ASP
Shipments-18%/yr
15($)

(Billion)
10Units

5ASP

200420052006
1111:.
Outline
‰Introduction
‰HBLEDMarkets
‰Lighting
‰Outlook
1212:.
Solid-StateLightingMarket
‰TheuseofHBLEDsforlightingiscurrentlythefastest
growingapplication
‰Themarketishighlyfragmented,encompassingmany
nicheapplications
„Themajorityofapplicationsareforcolored(R,G,B)light
„Generalilluminationapplicationsarestartingtoemerge
‰Hundredsofcompaniesworldwideareparticipatingatthe
luminaireorfixturelevel
„StrategiesUnlimitedhasidentifiedanddescribedapproximately
300suchcompanies,buttherearemore
„Participantsrangefromstart-upstotheworld’slargestlighting
companies
1313:.
HBLEDLightingMarket
‰The2006marketforHBLEDsusedinlighting
was$205million
„Architecturalisthelargest
‰Growingataround37%peryear–thehighestof
anyHBLEDapplication
‰Projectedtoreach~$1billionin2011
‰MajorityofapplicationsuseRGBtoday,butwhite
willincreasetomorethan60%ofthemarketby
2011
1414:.
StatusofSSLFixtureIndustry
‰ManysmallcompaniesdedicatedtoSSL;highlevel
ofLEDexpertise
‰Manylargeandmediumlightingcompanies,with
someinterestinSSL,offerafewproducts
„Mostlackin-houseLEDexpertise
„Relyonoutsideconsultantsfordesign,prototyping
‰Volumesaresmallandcostsarehigh,
independentofhighcostofLEDs
‰Productsinthemarketarehighlyvariablein
termsofquality
1515:.
SSLMarketDevelopment
‰Mostproductandmarketdevelopmentisbeingcarried
outbysmall,specializedcompanies
„Withafewexceptions(.,PhilipsLighting,Zumtobel)
‰Generally,largelightingfixturecompanyinterestis
modest(butinterestisgrowing)
„In-houseLEDexpertiseisminimal
„.
‰Establishedlightingcompaniescontroltheaccesstolarge-
volumesalesanddistributionchannelsandcustomers
1616:.
SSLMarketDrivers
‰Visualappeal
„Saturatedcolors,nearlypointsourceoflight,designflexibility
‰Longlifetime,robust
„Applicationswithhighmaintenancecosts
‰Compactformfactor
‰LackofradiatedheatorUV
‰Low-voltageoperation
‰Energyefficiency
„Colors,lowwattageapplications(.,batteryandsolar-
powered),low-temperatureoperation
„Improvingrapidly
1717:.
10SignificantNear-Medium-
TermApplications
‰Architectural‰Retaildisplay
‰Channelletter/contour‰Entertainment
lighting
‰Safety/security
‰Consumerportable
‰Outdoorarea
(.,flashlights)
‰Off-grid(generallysolar-
‰Residential
powered)
‰Machinevision
1818:.
InterestingEmergingGeneral
(White)LightingApplications
‰RetailDisplay‰Residential
„Lumination(GELcore)„Permlight
„Stylmark„LEDLightingFixtures(LLF)
„OptoLum„Lemnis
„MAG-LED
„Progress
„NuaLight
„Renaissance
„i-LeD
„Bruck
„ColorKinetics
„Bartco
„MatsushitaElectricWorks
„Philips
1919:.
RetailDisplayLighting
‰WhiteLEDsarebeingusedtoprovideattributesthatare
advantageousforcertaintypesofproducts:
‰High-endretail(.,designerlabelbrandedstores)
„“High-tech”look;interestingeffects;designflexibility
‰Cosmetics
„Lackofradiatedheatfromsource
‰Jewelry
„Sparklingappearancefrompointlightsource;compact;lowheat;
longlife
‰Refrigerateddisplaycases
„Moreefficientthanlinearfluorescentsatlowtemperatures;rapid
start-up;longlifetime
2020:.
RetailDisplayLightingExamples
Source:HeraGmbH
Source:NuaLight
Source:MAG-LED
2121:.
LEDResidentialLighting
2222:.
RefrigeratedDisplayCase
SuccessStory
‰Wal-MartadoptionofLEDrefrigerateddisplaycaselighting
fromGELcorewastheSSL“storyoftheyear”
‰InstallinginallnewSam’sClubandSuperStoresfromDec.
2006,~.
„PartofWal-Mart’s“green”strategy
‰Driversareenergyandmaintenancesavings
„Canuseoccupancysensorstoturnofflightingduringlowtraffic
periods(impossiblewithfluorescentduetoslowstart-up)
‰OthersupermarketchainsarelikelytofollowWal-Mart’s
lead
2323:.

LEDRelativeEfficiency
100%
80%
60%
RelativeFluorescent
Efficiency
40%LED
20%
0%
0102030405060708090
AmbientTemperature,
2424:.
OpportunitiesforSSL
‰Offerauniquelightingsolution
‰Createanaestheticallypleasinglighting
environment
‰Delivervalue(onacost-of-ownershipbasis)
‰Providelightingproductsadaptedtounique
physicalenvironments
‰Saveenergy;complywithregulatory
requirements(.,Title24inCalifornia)
2525:.
ChallengesforSSL
‰Highinitialcost
‰Otheralternativesforenergyefficiency
‰Consistencyofcolor/binningissues
‰Needtoprovideacompletelightingsolutionwitheaseof
installation
‰Adapttostandardelectricalinterfacesandcontrols
‰Realisticclaimsofperformance
‰Developmentofstandards
‰Needwidespreadbaseoflightingfixturedesignersand
engineerswhounderstandLEDs
‰Needforhigh-efficiencylightengine/fixturedesign
2626:.
EssentialDesignPrinciplesfor
LEDLightEngines
’twastephotons
’twasteelectrons

2727:.
Examples
EfficientDesign
Startwith70lm/W1-WwhiteLEDs(at25°Cjunctiontemperature)
Assume:90%electricalefficiency;90%opticalefficiency;operateat65°C
junctiontemperature
Lightengineefficacy==48lm/W
InefficientDesign
Startwith70lm/W1-WwhiteLEDs(at25°Cjunctiontemperature)
Assume:80%electricalefficiency;80%opticalefficiency;operateat100°C
junctiontemperature
Lightengineefficacy==34lm/W
2828:.
Outline
‰Introduction
‰HBLEDMarkets
‰Lighting
‰Outlook
2929:.
LEDLightingMarketOutlook
‰Nichelightingapplicationswillcontinuetogrow
‰Generalillumination(.,whitelightapplications)
willbecomeincreasinglyimportant
‰PresumescontinuingimprovementinwhiteLED
price/performance
„Andluminaireperformance!
‰Presumessubstantialmarketingeffortstopenetrate
theconventionallightingmarket
„Penetrationwillproceedgradually–applicationby
application
‰Overallforecast37%CAGRto~$1billionin2011
3030:.
LEDLightingMarketForecast
1200
White
1000
RGB
800
MarketSize
600
($Million)
400
200
0
200620072008200920102011
3131:.
LEDLightingMarketEvolution
100
10
Total"Lamp"
Market
MarketSize
1LEDLighting
($Billion)
Broader
AdoptionGeneral

Niche

Applications
20002005201020152020
3232:.
Thankyou!
3333