中国铜需求趋势与消费结构分析.docx

第 23 卷第 9 期 2014 年 9 月
中 国 矿 业
CHINA MINING MAGAZINE
Vol .23 ,No .9 Sep . 2014
中国铜需求趋势与消费结构分析
柳群义, 王安建, 张艳飞, 陈其慎
(中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所, 北京 100037)
摘要: 2000 年以来,随着中国工业化和城市化进程加速,铜资源消费迅猛增加。 2013 年,中国铜消费量 983 万 t ,占全球消费总量的 47 % ,对外依存度高达 69% 。本文采用中国地质科学院创建的人均铜资源消费“S”形规律预测模型,对未来中国铜资源需求进行了初步研究。研究表明:需求峰值期铜资源需求量将达到 1400 万~ 1600 万 t ,电力仍是最大需求部门。
关键词: 铜资源; 需求预测; 消费结构; 部门需求
中图分类号: F407畅 1 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1004‐4051(2014 )09‐0005‐04
Copper demand trend and consumption structure in China
LIU Qun‐yi , WANG An‐jian , ZHANG Yan‐fei , CHEN Qi‐shen
(Institue of Mineral Resources , Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences , Beijing 100037 , China)
Abstract : Since 2000 ,as China’s industrialization and urbanization process accelerated ,copper resource consumption increases rapidly .In 2013 ,9 .83 million tons of copper is consumed in China ,accounting for 47% of global consumption ,ex ternal dependency is as high as 69% .According to the copper resources per capita consumption law of “ S ” shape prediction model created by the Chinese academy of geological sciences ,China’s copper resources for the future demand has been studied .T he results show :peak demand will reach 1400‐1400 tons of copper resources ,and electric power sector is still the biggest demand .
Key words : copper resource ; demand prediction ; consumption structure ; sector demand
2013 年,中国铜消费量 983 万 t ,占全球消费总量的 47 % ,对外依存度