世界光伏产业2009年远景展望.pdf

GLOBAL EQUITY RESEARCH
TECHNOLOGY
Solar Energy NORTH AMERICA
Solar Insights - Volume 1
SECTOR VIEW 2009 Outlook; 10 Predictions for 2008

Rating: 1 - POSITIVE
In this first edition of “Solar Insights,” we analyze the solar energy industry
supply/demand trends, particularly for 2009 and beyond. We also analyze the
German solar incentive program and its potential impact on German electricity
bills in 2009.


! We think the outlook of greater silicon supply is positive for solar industry profits. In
Vishal Shah our view, greater silicon supply is likely to not only accelerate the growth of solar
industry shipments, but also result in a redistribution of profits in the value chain.
visshah@
LBI, New York We believe panies with scale, technology, and cost leadership should
be able to negotiate silicon supply contracts with new polysilicon entrants at
Global Technology Sector Head attractive pricing terms and lower their cost structure.
Tim Luke

tluke@ ! We see limited risk of excess poly supply in 2009, as most of the supply increase
LBI, New York is expected from new poly entrants, and several of them may find it challenging to
increase supply in the period suggested by their aggressive ramp plans. We
believe solar stocks now appear over-sold and look attractive given their

respective risk/reward profiles.
! Key Conclusions: 1) We believe that in a scenario of excess supply (180,000

tons in 2010 representing 180% year-over-year growth), solar industry profits
could increase by 127% year over year (assuming 40% annual ASP decline);
2) we expect incentives in subsidized markets to result in a floor on pricing even in
a scenario of excess supply, and 3) every 1GW increase in solar shipments

in Germany would result in a € increase of German electricity bills.
! Ten Predictions for 2008: 1) Earnings momentum trends should be mixed as