汇丰银行首席分析师中国策略报告.pdf

Review abc
Greater China
Global Research


 Banks’ willingness to lend is clearly a
China loan growth positive for the economy
Mind the mix
 The type and use of this liquidity are not
yet positive for profitability
 Contributions from China Economics,
Strategy, Banks and Forex teams
Liquidity, rather than investment demand, has driven the recent
surge in lending. This can continue, if not quite at the recent
stellar pace, with a record low loan to deposit ratio, potential
further reserve ratio cuts and rapidly growing deposits.
Most of the recent growth has been driven mercial bills
— not necessarily generating economic value. Companies may
be papering over cracks in damaged balance sheets as demand
disappears. There are signs that corporate deposits are rising,
highlighting the potential arbitrage between current funding and
deposit rates. A cynic may point to the jump in loan growth and
volumes in the A-share markets…
17 February 2009 We remain positive on growth in China’s economy in 2H.
The volume and speed at which liquidity is being delivered by
Qu Hongbin* the banks suggest that when “real” demand appears it will be
Economist
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited met by supply. Fixed asset investment, whether as part of the
+852 2822 2025 ******@.hk stimulus package or otherwise, should rise.
Steven Sun *
M1 is the key indicator for corporate profits and market
Strategist
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited performance and thus far it remains subdued,
+852 2822 4298 ******@.hk suggesting continued pricing pressure despite loan
Todd Dunivant* growth. We are cautious on A shares, and H shares will
Regional Head of Banks Research provide a safer haven.
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6599 ******@.hk For the banks, the near-term outlook is margin
Richard Yetsenga* compression, while longer-term