郑州商品交易所白糖.doc

郑州商品交易所白糖
期货投资分析
姓名:沈克宇
学号:0840405113
专业:经济学

目录
1 白糖合约概述·····················································1
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食糖的榨季··················································3
2 基本分析··························································3
白糖价格的主要决定因素········································3
、食糖产销不稳定是造成价格波动的主要原因···········3
···········4
、国际市场的变化以及进口和走私对国内食糖市场的影响较大····4
糖价的季节性走势
·············································5
白糖的商品属性················································5
国内外糖价走势的关系··········································5
3 技术分析图························································6
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分时走势图··························8
K线图································8
趋势分析·································8
、国际食糖供求过剩及宏观环境偏空压制糖市················9
、新榨季初期国内食糖现货大幅回调,拖累郑糖期价下行·······10
、主流资金减多增空,打压期价··················10
——加速调整势······························11
4总结·································11
郑州商品交易所白糖期货投资分析
1白糖合约概述
食糖是天然甜味剂,是人们日常生活的必需品,同时也是饮料、糖果、糕点等含糖食品和制药工业中不可或缺的原料。食糖生产的基本原料是甘蔗和甜菜,甘蔗生长于热带和亚热带地区,甜菜生长于温带地区。我国甘蔗糖主产区主要集中在南方的广西、云南、广东湛江等地,甜菜糖主产区主要集中在北方的新疆、黑龙江、内蒙等地。尽管原料不同,但甘蔗糖和甜菜糖在品质上没有什么差别,国家标准对两者同样适用。

糖厂利用甘蔗、甜菜榨取糖汁,经过沸腾浓缩,中心分离形成糖结晶,这种结晶称为原糖,呈浅棕色。原糖经过提炼后,成为日常消费的成品糖(如白砂糖、绵白糖等)。国际上大多数发达国家制糖是采用“原糖——精糖”二步法的制糖生产方法,即“田间糖厂(产出半成品的原糖)+精炼糖厂(产出精制糖)”生产方式,先是生产原糖,然后再回溶生产精炼糖的方法。大部分糖厂生产原糖,然后供给精炼糖厂进行精炼生产精炼糖,作为饮食用糖供应市场。我国糖厂几乎全部采用一步法生产,即糖厂通过甘蔗榨汁、沸腾浓缩、中心分离、提炼等工艺一次性直接生产出日常消费的白糖,所以我国食糖市场流通和消费的基本都是白糖,而国际贸易则以原糖为主。与二步法相比,我国一步法生产的一级白砂糖只相当国际耕地白糖的标准,质量相对较差,基本没有出口市场。
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一是糖料与其它作物不同的是,收获后不能直接变成商品糖,必须经过工业化加工,因此白糖属于工业品。
二是由于工业化加工需要较大的设备投入,糖价高且有充足的糖料时,加工能力的增加滞后;同样,糖价低或原料不足时,加工能力又不容易很快减下来,因此,糖