房地产周期波动实证研究-统计学专业毕业论文.docx

声明
本人郑重声明:本人在导师的指导下,独立进行研究工作所取得的成采,撰写成硕士研究生毕业论文“房地产周期波动实证研究”,除了论文中已经注明引用的内容外对本文的研究做出重要贡献的人和集体,均已经在文中以明确的方式标明。本论文中不包含任何未加注明的其他个人和集体已经公开发表和未公开发表的成果。
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学位论文作者签名:P乩叛。吾
2004年阴1日
@黜魁蟹
同济大学硕士研究生学位论文
论文摘要
房地产业是随着我国国民经济市场化改革逐步发展起来的,是先导性、基础性的产业;其在国民经济中占有十分重要的地位,正逐步成为我国国民经济的支柱产业。房地产业及房地产市场的特点决定了房地产市场波动具有周期性,对房地产周期波动理论进行系统的研究,具有很高的理论意义和实践价值。研究房地产周期波动,有利于把握房地产业和房地产市场发展的规律,从而指导实践并减少实践中的盲目性。
我国房地产业由于起步较晚,市场化运作时间不长,本身尚不成熟,理论研究也处于初级阶段。虽然已经总结了一些实践经验,也有一些较为现成的理论作指导,但缺少完整的、系统的理论体系。本论文试图从房地产市场供给需求分析出发,对房地产经济周期波动进行实证研究,并尝试对未来的发展趋势进行预测, 以期对我国房地产业的发展有所帮助。
最终本文以全国和上海为例,应用供需分析的方法对全国和上海房地产市场周期波动进行了分析和预测。
关键字:房地产业 房地产经济波动 周期 供需分析销售率
2
@型麓罅
同济大学硕士研究生学位论文
Abstract
Real estate industry of China developed with the market—based reform of our national is a guiding and basic industry and occupies all important position among Our national economy,thus it es the pillar industry of our
national economy characteristics of real estate industry determine
that real estate market have periodic has hi【gh theory value and important practice meaning ifwe carry systematic research on the theory ofreal estate market fluctuations the real estate market fluctuations cycle Can help US
hold the development direction of real estate,thus instructing our practice and reduce blindness.
Because the real estate industry of OUr country starts relatively late and market—based operation time is not long,it is still immature and the theoretical research is in primary stage there have been some practical experience and some corresponding theories in the field of real estate fluctuations cycle,there still lack the intact,systematic theoretical thesis attempt to do research in
terms of supply and demand of the real estate,then to go on innovative research on
the positive economic analysis and finally to forecast the economic fluctuation of the
real motive of the thesis expects to be helpful to the develop