Market Forecast Key Target Customers Product Strategy Strategic Partnerships Channel Strategy Brand anization Table of Contents In order to forecast CKAD’s addressable market, we developed a 80-page demand forecasting model Key Assumptions Mobile ration of Zhejiang will increase at a decelerating rate to approximately 67% in 2007 Key SMS usage per user will increase at a decelerating rate based wireless data ration will resemble the ration over number of years introduced with certain upward adjustment Key Sources of Data Source: . Kearney analysis Extract: Zhejiang Market Model MII Market survey IDC Zhejiang Statistics Bureau Analyst reports, Merill Lynch, CSFB OECD Data Estimate by city Estimate by product Market and revenue Individual applications Enterprise applications Product list Usage estimate Professional applications Detailed product list SMS Market and revenue Total mobile users ARPU estimate Total mobile users SMS usage Average price of SMS ration among mobile users Hangzhou Ningbo … ration estimate Price level estimate Fixed line/ wireless munication Wireless munication ration of 2G and mobile services Attractiveness assessment of each product Total Market Voice Cross checking We consider three fundamental scenarios to account for major sources of uncertainties Key Sources of Uncertainty Potential Impact Worse Case Scenario Base Case Scenario Best Case Scenario MPP to CPP High CPP starting 1/2004 ARPU to drop of 22% in 2004 Mobile ration to increase by additional 2% per year from 2004 Market share of PAS to drop by 20% ’s share to increase by 5% CPP starting 1/2005 ARPU to drop of 22% in 2005 Mobile ration to increase by additional 2% per year from 2005 Market share of PAS in drop 20% of ’s share to increase by 5% MPP continues Average tariff decrease High Voice price to drop 15% per year Elasticity of MOU is estimated to be SMS price to drop 50% upon intro
