高盛2005年中国投资策略报告.pdf

China investment guide
Portfolio Strategy
China


" " The case for Chinese equities. We expect sustainable
absolute returns as China enters the sweet spot of growth. We
November 17, 2004
note similarities between China now, Japan in 1960, and Korea in
Overweight
1984, four years before each nation hosted their first Olympic
Why read this report Games, marking a long period of high growth and structural
• Comprehensive China
investment guide change. Annual returns for the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI were %
• Chinese equity mkts may and % in the 20 years from 1960 and 1984, respectively.
resemble those of Japan in
1960 and Korea in 1984
• Investors can make money We expect moderate potential upside in 2005
by investing in China We believe valuations, earnings momentum, and government policy remain favorable despite
• Introduction of model regional economic headwinds. We maintain our Overweight China stance in the regional
portfolio and top 10 picks context. Our bottom-up valuation indicates 2005 MSCI and HSCEI targets at and 5200,
representing 10% and 12% potential upside, respectively.
Goldman Sachs

China Research Team Structural change the long-term driver, Rmb appreciation would be bonus
China Strategy Positive changes are occurring on macro, market, corporate, and external levels that could raise
Thomas Deng, CFA ROE and lower the equity risk premium. Rmb appreciation and fund inflows would be bonuses.
@
Hong Kong: 852-2978-1062 Thematic investment approach with bias toward earnings visibility
Kinger Lau We favor upstream resources and basic materials, GDP growth proxies, selective consumer,
@ services, and panies with a bias toward earnings visibility.
Hong Kong: 852-2978-1224
Economics Goldman Sachs China Research: Team resources are substantial
Hong Liang, We have marshaled a significant China team and are covering nearly 90% of MSCI Ch