Excel - Excel Stuff - Monte Carlo Simulation - Uncertainty And Risk Analysis.pdf

Uncertainty & Risk Analysis
A practical guide from Business Dynamics
PricewaterhouseCoopers, MCS
Business Dynamics
Uncertainty & Risk Analysis
by
Chris Rodger and Jason Petch
BUSINESS DYNAMICS
April 1999
Copyright ÓBusiness Dynamics, PricewaterhouseCoopers United Kingdom firm. All rights reserved.
For more information contact Chris Rodger via e-mail or Tel. + 44 (0) 171 213 3519
Uncertainty and Risk Analysis
Table of Contents
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1
2 Phases of risk analysis .................................................................................................. 2
3 Identifying the risks....................................................................................................... 4
Introduction.............................................................................................................................4
Initial risk identification workshops .......................................................................................4
The risk register ......................................................................................................................8
Using a model to identify risks................................................................................................9
4 Quantifying risks......................................................................................................... 10
Which risks should be quantified?........................................................................................10
Theoretical background to quantifying risks .......................................................................11
Separating risks out...............................................................................................................20
A review of the issues that arise when quantifying risks with experts.................................2