巴菲特研究中心--致股东的信（PDF 46页）.pdf

研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism
巴菲特致股东的信 1990 年
Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1990
Last year we made a prediction: "A reduction [in 去年我们曾经预测过,伯克希尔的净
Berkshire' worth] is almost certain in at 值在未来的三年内有可能会减少,结
least one of the next three years." During much 果在 1990 年的下半年我们差点就证
of 1990's second half, we were on the road to 明了这项预测的真实性,还好年底前
quickly proving that forecast accurate. But some 股票价格的上涨使得我们公司的净
strengthening in stock prices late in the year 值,还是较前一个年度增加 %,约
enabled us to close 1990 worth up by $362 亿美元;而总计过去 26 年以来
million, or %. Over the last 26 years (that (也就是自从现有经营阶层接手后),
is, since present management took over) our 每股净值从 19 元成长到现在的 4,612
per-share book value has grown from $ to 美元,年复合成长率约为 %。
$4,, or at a rate of % compounded
annually.
Our growth rate was lackluster in 1990 because 1990 年成长之所以减缓的原因主要
our four mon stock holdings, in 是因为我们四个主要的股票投资市值
aggregate, showed little change in market value. 加总并没有多大的变动所致,去年我
Last year I told you that though panies 曾向各位表示,虽然这些公司-资本城
- Capital Cities/ABC, Coca-Cola, GEICO, and /ABC、可口可乐、GEICO 保险与华盛
Washington Post - had fine businesses and superb 顿邮报等,拥有良好的企业体质与经
managements, widespread recognition of these 营阶层,但是因为这些特点现在已广
attributes had pushed the stock prices of the 为投资大众所认同,所以也促使公司
four to lofty levels. The market prices of the 股价推升到一个颇高的价位;另外其
two panies have since fallen 中两家媒体事业之后的股价又大幅滑
significantly - for good reasons relating to 落,原因在于后面我会再详细叙述该
evolutionary industry developments that I will 产业革命性的演进,另外可口可乐的
discuss later - and the price of Coca-Cola stock 股价也因为我个人也相当认同的原因
has increased significantly for what I also 为大众所接受而大涨,不过总的来说,
believe are good reasons. Overall, yearend 1990 目前这四大天王的股价,虽然不够吸
prices of our "permanent four," though far from 引人,但比起一年以前来说,要算是
enticing, were a bit more appealing than they 合理的多。
were a year earlier.
Berkshire's 26-year record is meaningless in 伯克希尔过去 26 年来辉煌的记