每周外汇策略简报.pdf

每周外汇策略简报
2006年 11 月 27 日

Capital Market Services, LLC Prepared by: Hans Nilsson
350 Fifth Avenue, Suite 6400
New York, NY 10118 Contact:@

trading@


美元价格持续在经济衰退中下跌

周一美元涨跌互见,兑美元上涨,在不稳定期间,兑日圆微跌。虽然法国财长Thierry
Breton表示应对美元近期的弱势提高警惕后,EUR/USD稳定了升势,但今早EUR/USD触
及了20个月高点。日银主席Toshihiko Fukui表示,如日本经济扩张与预期一致,决策者
将逐步调整利率; USD/JPY随后回升。

政治经济新闻评论


在市场开始对美元衰退作出调整后,美元上星期跌至19个月低点。美元下跌是由于美国
收益和增长别逐渐缩小所致。正当欧洲央行和日银很可能收紧利率,和美国疲弱经济前景
因素,使美联储明年降息的可能性增加。大型的美国贸易赤字、央行进行多样化美元、和
套利外汇交易展开,同时也施压于美元。一些基本因素,如绝对收益差别,或美元购买力
平价被低估,均可使美元上涨。不过,美国增长和收益差别将逐渐减少,直至美息。


美国经济已进入严重的衰退期。Globicus领先指数在10月略微上升; 不过,仍停留在预期
的衰退区内。极有可能出现严重的衰退期。



©2004-2006 Globicus International, Inc. and Capital Market Services, . This report is intended solely for distribution to
customers of Capital Market Services, . Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be
reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, . with regard to the accuracy of the data.
The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without
notice. Capital Market Services, . accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising
out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed
in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.
Weekly FX Strategy Briefing 2
October 27, 2006

Leading & Coincident Economic Index vs Recessions (yellow)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
US Coincident Smoothed Growth Rate
US Total Leading Growth Rate
Source:Globicus



技术上,美元明显地跌穿了其2006年的交易圈,这表示了,只要美国经济前景持续疲
弱,美元便明显地持续下跌。当美元指数今年跌至接近5%,欧元兑美元上升接近11%,
而日圆兑美元上升大约2%。


由于10月未能冲破阻力点,美元自此一直下降。自跌穿85-85主要支撑区后,上星期美