Stratospheric Sudden Warming with Projected Global Warming and Related Tropospheric Wave Activity.pdf

关于中层大气动力学的描述SOLA, 2007, Vol. 3, 105‒108, doi:‒027 105
Stratospheric Sudden Warming with Projected Global Warming
and Related Tropospheric Wave Activity
Masaru Inatsu1, Masahide Kimoto2, and Akimasa Sumi3
1Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
2Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
3Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract Table 1. The number of major (+) and minor (‒) stratospheric
sudden warmings (SSWs) counted every half-month in Oct‒D
ec and Jan‒Apr for the 20th-century and 21st-century simula-
Stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in association tions (20CS and 21CS). The number is also counted for 44
with projected global warming (GW) in the Northern winters in Sep 1958 to Aug 2002 based on the European Centre
Hemisphere was investigated by 20th-century and for Medium and Long-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis
21st-century simulations (20CS and 21CS) using the at- Data (ERA-40). The bottom line shows the total number.
mosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model.
Composite analysis revealed that the model simulated 20CS 21CS ERA40
Period
20th-century dynamical aspects of SSW well. Although + ‒+ ‒+ ‒
SSW events in early winter are missing, considering dif-
ficulties in reasonable SSW simulation, we regard the Oct 16‒31