欧洲主权债务危机（英文）.pdf

The sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area
In the last 18 months a number of European governments have been

forced to withdraw from the bond market and seek emergency loans
from the EU, IMF and ECB
– private sector unwilling to lend to them at rates they can a¤ord due
to doubts over their ability to repay
–addressing concerns over the solvency of member states the paramount
objective for Euro area policy-makers
Many observers argue that the creation of the European single cur-

rency has contributed to the debt crisis in Europe, and that the future
of the Euro is in question as a result
In this lecture I will consider

– the creation of the Euro
– the origins of the debt crisis, including the role played by the Euro
– options for policy-makers tackling the crisis
Inception of the Euro
11 countries permanently …xed exchange rates in 1999, new paper

currency (the Euro) introduced in 2001
– Greece joined the single currency in 2001
Advantages of Euro membership for Greece and other southern Euro-

pean countries
– single currency means lower trade costs and therefore opportunity to
grow through exporting to high income countries in northern Europe
– belief that exchange rate stability would deliver to southern Europe
the in‡ation and broader macroeconomic stability achieved by Germany
and others
Constraints associated with Euro membership

–nominal depreciation cannot be used to boost national competitiveness
– single interest rate policy for all members means monetary policy not
available for macro stabilisation
Early success
Larger European economies (esp. Germany) hit by 2001 global reces-

sion, but then recovered strongly
Countries such as Greece performed well –no recession in 2001, grew

much faster than the European average, . 4%+ in real terms during
2001-06
Combination of improving export performance and high investment

levels for the 2004 Olympics supported economic con