企业人力资本投资风险及防范措施研究.pdf

企业人力资本投资风险及防范措施研究

摘 要

知识经济时代人力资本已成为最主要的生产要素和社会财富的重要组成部
分，知识拥有者成为企业最重要的人，国内外企业的管理者开始意识到人力资
本的投资在人力资源管理中的重要地位。因此，如何避免企业人力资本投资的
风险，或减小风险所带来的负面影响成为目前研究的热点问题。本文将马尔可
夫预测模型应用于企业人力资本投资主要风险因素预测，并建立了风险预警系
统。
本文首先分析了人力资本投资风险的研究现状，指出其存在问题，综述了
其基本理论。其次，从环境、企业和个人三个层面分析了企业人力资本投资过
程中存在的风险因素，建立了企业人力资本投资主要风险因素预测的指标体系；
采用马尔可夫预测理论建立了企业人力资本投资主要风险因素预测模型，预测
指标体系中对企业人力资本投资风险影响显著的因素；通过实例验证了该模型
的有效性。最后，建立了企业人力资本投资风险预警系统，绘制风险预警辐射
图以直观体现各风险因素所处警区，并给出相应的风险防范措施。

关键词：企业人力资本；投资风险；马尔可夫预测模型；风险预警；风险防范
措施
I
The Study on Risk of Enterprises Human Capital
Investment and Precaution
Abstract
In the knowledge-based age, human capital has been the most important agent of
production and a significant component of the wealth of society. Knowledge
holders have been the most important personnel in enterprise. Managers of
domestic and foreign enterprises are beginning to realize that human capital
investment plays an important role in human resource management. Therefore, how
to avoid the risk of human capital investment or to reduce the negative effects of
the risk becomes a hotspot in the current study. Markov prediction model is used in
this paper to predict the most important risk factor in enterprise human capital
investment. And risk early-warning system is established in this paper.
First, researches on risk of human capital investment are reviewed in this article,
and some problems are pointed out. Summary of the basic theory is analyzed. Then,
some risk factors in the processes of enterprise human capital investment are
analyzed from three levels- environment, enterprise and personnel. Index to predict
the most important risk factor in enterprise human capital investment is established.
Prediction model of