江北产业集中区物流规划的研究.pdf

III 江北产业集中区物流规划研究摘要随着全球经济的快速发展,物流业成为新一轮国内外产业转移的新热点。江北产业集中区作为皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区的示范区,承接和发展物流业是其重要内容,并力争把集中区打造成为皖江城市带甚至是泛长三角地区的区域物流中心。因此,本文对江北集中区物流产业进行研究,制定科学合理的物流发展规划以促进集中区物流产业的健康快速的发展,同时也有利于江北集中区健康、有序的发展和完成好承担产业转移的任务。本文在总结城市物流规划基本方法的基础上, 运用 SWOT 方法分析了江北集中区物流产业发展环境;针对集中区数据信息少不能构建货运量预测模型的问题,运用类比的思想选取类比城市构建货运量预测模型,预测集中区在 2011 年、 2013 年和 2015 年的公路、水路、铁路货运量及港口吞吐量;以货运量预测结果为依据对江北集中区物流基础设施、信息平台、政策平台进行了规划。研究结果表明,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,分析和预测了江北集中区物流状况,使得集中区物流规划方案的设计更加科学合理,这对集中区政府及相关部门制定物流规划具有很大的借鉴意义。关键词:江北集中区环境分析物流需求预测物流规划 IV Research on the Logistics Planning of JiangBei Industrial Clusters in Anhui Province ABSTRACT With the rapid development of gobal economy,logistics industry has e a new hotspot of Industrial Transfer at home and abroad. JiangB ei Industrial Clusters as a demonstration area of the cities along th e Yangtze River in Anhui province will take receiving and developing logistic industrial transfer as one of its most important tasks, try to make itself develop to be a regional logistic s center in the cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province even in the pan-long triangle area. For this reason th is paper has made a research on making a scientific logistics develo pment planning so as to further the healthy development of the logistics industry in this area, meanwhile,be good pletely finishing the task of receiving industrial transfer. Based on the method of city logistics schedul e, this paper has used SWOT to analyze the logistics development environment in Ji angBei Industrial Cl usters,used analogy to select similar city to construct a freight –volume prediction model which predicts the the reight volume of highway,waterway and railwa y as well as the port capacity in JiangBei Industrial Clusters in 2011,2013, on the ba sis of the result of freight volume planning for the logistics infrastructure, information platform and policy platform. The research result shows that using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to analyz