中信证券2012年房地产行业投资策略.pdf

2011 ᑈ 12 ᳜ 7 ᮹
䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞg㸠Ϯⷨおg᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ
᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ 2012 ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹
ᬓㄪ೎ᴀ෍ܗˈ㸠ϮॅЁ᳝ᴎᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄㓈ᣕ˅
ᡩ䌘㽕⚍Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

5 ᠓Ӌ੠ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘ℷ೼ߎ⦄ঠ䎠DŽ᠓ഄѻ䫔ଂӋ䞣唤䎠ˈಯᄷᑺࠡ 45 ໽䰜㘾
ܼ೑ଚક᠓䫔ଂ䴶⿃ḋᴀⲥ⌟ৠ↨ϟ䰡 %DŽ೼䫔ଂय़࡯䴶ࠡˈೳഄᏖഎ⬉䆱˖010-60838249
ᓖᐌᚼ⎵DŽಯᄷᑺࠡ 45 ໽ᅙഄⲥ⌟៤Ѹ䞥乱ৠ↨ϟ䰡 %DŽৠᯊˈ10 ᳜䚂ӊ˖chencong@
㒳䅵ሔ݀ᏗᮄᓔᎹऩ᳜๲䗳߯ϟᮄԢˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵ᓔথᡩ䌘ेᇚᥝ༈৥ϟDŽ ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S10**********
10 ᳜ᔧ᳜ˈ᠓ഄѻᓔথᡩ䌘䌘䞥ᴹ⑤ৠ↨๲䭓ҙ 1%ˈӕϮ䌘䞥कߚ㋻ᓴDŽ
㘨㋏Ҏ˖Ҭ⨰
5 ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ᠓ሟᬓㄪⱘ㒜ᵕⳂᷛᰃԣ᳝᠔ሙˈᦤ催ԣ᠓㞾᳝⥛ˈᢝࡼᓔথ
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ᡩ䌘੠㾷އഄᮍ䋶ᬓಯᮍ䴶੠䇤㒳ϔDŽ䗮䖛೑䰙↨䕗ˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў䖭ಯϾϡ
䚂ӊ˖yufu@
੠ࡷৢПߚˈ㗠ᰃⳌ䕙Ⳍ៤ⱘDŽ៥ӀⳌֵˈ᳾ᴹ੠ܜৠⱘᬓㄪⳂᷛ≵᳝Ӭ
䇤ǃᅠᭈ੠㒳ϔⱘ᠓ഄѻᬓㄪ㛑໳ܼ䴶⒵䎇䖭ಯᮍ䴶ⱘ䳔㽕DŽ
Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄
䰸њ៤ࡳ᥻ࠊ᠓Ӌ䖛ᖿϞ⍼ˈᅠ៤ֱ䱰᠓ᓎ䆒ӏࡵ໪ˈᬓㄪℷ೼ѻ⫳݊Ҫ 5
Ёᷛ300 ᠓ഄѻ
ϔ㋏߫ᕅડDŽ䖭ѯᕅડࣙᣀपഄᬊܹ䲒ҹᣕ㓁ˈᄬ䞣䌘ѻ㓽∈ᏺᴹ⼒Ӯ〇 10
Ҭय़࡯੠ᓔথᡩ䌘ϟ䰡ᏺ 0ܥᅮ䯂乬ˈ䫊㸠ᢉᢐ⠽ⱘ亢䰽ˈ᠓ഄѻֵᠬࠄᳳ
10- ˈܗᴹⱘህϮ䯂乬ㄝDŽ៥ӀⳌֵˈĀঠ䎠āⱘሔ䴶ᇚՓᬓㄪ䗤⏤䍄৥೎ᴀ෍
ҹ㾷އ᠓ഄѻᏖഎ䴶Јⱘḍᴀ䯂乬DŽ -20
5 2012 -30
ᬓㄪᇚއᅮᑈഄѻ㸠Ϯ෎ᴀ䴶DŽ೼ѻϮ੠䋻Ꮥ䛑෎ᴀϡᬒᵒˈ䇗᥻ᬓ 110104 110407 110704 110927
ㄪҡ䕗Ϲढ़Ԛ䋻Ꮥ⬹᳝ᆑᵒˈᬓㄪܼ䴶ᆑᵒϝ⾡ϡৠⱘᚙމϟˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵
ᑈଚક᠓䫔ଂ乱ᇚߚ߿ৠ↨๲䭓-37%ǃ-6%੠ 41%ˈ2012 ᑈ᠓ഄѻᓔ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 2012
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Ёᗻⱘᚙ᱃DŽ 1ˊlj᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯϧ乬ⷨおü㰮ᑏⱘ䏋䏋ᵓNJأདᮍ৥থሩˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵෎ᴀ䴶ᇚ㨑೼Ф㾖⬹
5 亢䰽ᦤ⼎˖෎ᴀ䴶੠ᬓㄪঠᴔⱘ亢䰽DŽ ............................................... 2011-11-14
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ㅔ⿄䆘㑻
˄ܗ˅˄ܗ˅ 10A 11E 12E 13E 10A 11E 12E 13E
5ˊlj᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬᡹ਞПϔҢ
᢯ଚഄѻ 14 10 7 5 фܹ
ೳഄ㑶߽ࠄક⠠㑶߽NJ........2011-08-05
ϛ⾥ A 11 8 6 5 фܹ
䞥ഄ䲚ಶ 7 8 7 6 фܹ
߽ഄѻ 11 9 7 5 фֱܹ
佪ᓔ㙵ӑ 9 8 6 5 фܹ
ᮄ␪Ёᅱ 14 13 9 6 фܹ
Ёफᓎ䆒 11 8 6 5 фܹ
ढথ㙵ӑ 8 7 6 4 фܹ
㤷ⲯথሩ 13 9 7 6 фܹ
ݴජ໻䗮 10 7 5 5 фܹ
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