风力发电机组-设计要求1-12.pdf

Project Analysis and Evaluation
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Key Concepts and Skills
Understand forecasting risk (預測風險)
Understand and be able to do scenario and sensitivity analysis (情境與敏感性分析)
Understand the various forms of break-even analysis(損益兩平分析)
Understand operating leverage (營運槓桿)
Understand capital rationing (資金受限)
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Chapter Outline
Evaluating NPV Estimates
Scenario and Other What-If Analyses
Break-Even Analysis
Operating Cash Flow, Sales Volume, and Break-Even
Operating Leverage
Capital Rationing
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Evaluating NPV Estimates
NPV estimates are just that – estimates
A positive NPV is a good start – now we need to take a closer look (淨現值是一個估計值,須做進一步的風險分析).
Forecasting risk – how sensitive is our NPV to changes in the cash flow estimates; the more sensitive, the greater the forecasting risk
Sources of value – why does this project create value?
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Scenario Analysis(情境分析)
What happens to the NPV under different cash flow scenarios(通常會分成三或五種情境來看淨現值的變化)?
At the very least look at:
Best case – high revenues, low costs
Worst case – low revenues, high costs
Measure of the range of possible es
Best case and worst case are not necessarily probable, but they can still be possible (雖然發生機率不高, 但還是有可能發生)
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New Project Example
Consider the project discussed in the text()
The initial cost is $200,000 and the project has a 5-year life. There is no salvage. Depreciation is straight-line, the required return is 12%, and the tax rate is 34%
The base case NPV is 15,567
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Summary of Scenario Analysis
Scenario
Net e
Cash Flow
NPV
IRR
Base case
19,800
59,800
15,567
%
Worst Case
-15,510
24,490
-111,719
-%
Best Case
59,730
99,730
159,504
%
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Sensitivity Analysis(敏感性分析)
What happens to NPV when we vary one variable at a time (只看一個預測變數對淨現值的影響)
This is a subset of scenario analysis where we are looking at the effect of specific variables on NPV.
The greater the volatility in NPV in relation to a specific variable, the larger the forecasting risk associated wit