经贸文章.ppt

Global trade has turned down sharply
this year. The outlook is pretty bleak.
林祖妍陈杨圳
09国贸3班
全球贸易今年急剧下滑,前景也黯然
TRADE-WATCHERS often look to the oceans to gauge activity. Bustling docks and harbours mean importers and exporters are busy, and trade figures are likely to be strong. Empty quays are ominous. At the end of 2011 data from big ports started to turn choppy, fuelling fears of a slowdown that e to pass. The OECD reports that exports fell by over 4% in the second quarter of 2012 in Britain and India; Russia and South Africa lost more than 8%. That is particularly bad news for places like Singapore and Hong Kong, which are important trade hubs (see chart 1); open euro-zone countries like Ireland and Belgium are also highly exposed.
贸易观察家经常以海洋评估贸易活动。繁华的码头和港口分别代表繁忙的进口商和出口商,此时的贸易数据可能是非常强的。空码头是不好的现象。从刚结束的2011年的数据显示,各大港口开始转向震荡,刺激放缓的担忧已经来到。经济合作与发展组织报告说,2012年第二季度在英国和印度出口量下跌了超过4%,俄罗斯和南非甚至下跌8%以上。这对于新加坡和香港这样重要的贸易中心来说,无疑是一个非常坏的消息(见图表1);对于开放欧元区的国家,如爱尔兰和比利时也遭受冲击。
The obvious cause of falling trade is the global economic slowdown. Since exports are sales to foreigners, they tend to weaken when buying power is low. That means trade often tracks global GDP quite closely. At a more granular level, too, the patterns of trade match the fortunes of economies. Since 2011, imports into the stagnant European Union have fallen by %. In contrast the oil-rich Middle East has increased imports by %.
最明显的贸易下降的原因是全球经济增长放缓。由于出口的主要销售对象都为外国人,所以当购买力降低时,他们也会遭到削弱。这意味着,贸易经常都与全球GDP相当密切。在更细化的级别也是如此,贸易格局与经济命运紧密相连。自2011年起,%。%。
If the global economy were the only factor in determining trade, a pick-up in world output would translate automatically into rising trade. The IMF, for example, thinks that trade will grow by % in 2013 on the back of a strengthening economy. But the fund’s predictions assume that looser policies in the euro area and emerging markets will be essful. If that turns out to be too optimistic then growth, and trade, could under