渤海证券--石化行业周报.pdf

石油化工行业


行业月报
2009.[Table_Title]
行行业[Table_SubIndusList]评级:
业石化行业周报【2009 年第 24 周】原油勘探买入
炼油中性

产张延明天然气买入

品 86-22-28451653 LPG 买入

短期看好第二种情况,4季度看好第三种情况
周
核心观点: 买入中国石油、东华能源
报



本周视点:

原油库存和汽油库存分别下跌了 万桶和 万桶,原油库存在最近

五周内已有四周出现下降,累计下降了 1366 万桶,汽油库存已连续 7 周下跌,


累计下降了 1566 万桶。受原油库存下跌影响,本周 WTI 油价收于 美元/

桶,较上周上涨了。
% 推荐公司
中国石油买入
国际能源机构(IEA)发布最新一期石油市场月报,将其对 2009 年全球
1 东华能源买入
原油日需求量的预期较前一个月上调 12 万桶,为 10 个月以来首次作出向


上修正。


原油价格持续快速上涨,挤压炼油厂利润,国内汽油相对国外三地汽

油价格溢价 %,柴油溢价 18%,为今年以来较低水平。


三烯、三苯受原油价格带动,价格上扬,与此同时,价差均出现回升,

如果经济复苏得以进一步确认,下游依然面临投资机遇,但仍需观察。


对产业链的思考:近期油价走向仍是关注焦点,我们认为如下三点需

要特别注意: 1、美元指数的走向;2、原油与汽油库存等数据;3、下游
化工产品价差。目前美元指数为 ,向上反弹的条件已经具备,三种

情况:第一种,美元指数反弹,原油、汽油库存上升,下游化工产品价差

缩小, 原油价格必大跌无疑;第二种,美元指数反弹,原油、汽油库存继行
续下降,下游化工产品价差缩小,原油价格高位盘整;第三种,美元指数业

反弹,原油、汽油库存继续下降,下游化工产品价差扩大,原油价格上升周

空间比较大。就近期而言,我倾向于第二种情况,但对第四季度,我更倾报

向于第三种情况。(三种情况均假设美元指数反弹,主要是认为美元升值对

原油价格的影响是局部的)
投资建议:东华能源调整接近尾声,买入中国石油和东华能源。










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行业月报
目录
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原油价格、库存及裂解价差·················································································································· 4
原油价格············································································································································ 4
原/汽油库存······································································································································· 4
裂解价差············································································································································ 4
液化(天然、石油)气·······························································································