现金分红对上市公司的价值影响研究-基于强制性分红政策的实证.doc


现金分红对上市公司的价值影响研究—基
于强制性分红政策的实证#
李延喜,孙文章*
5
10
(大连理工大学管理与经济学部,大连 116024)
摘要:考察现金分红与上市公司价值之间的关系,对于规范公司股利分配行为、促进我国股
市良性发展具有非常重要的意义。本文以 2008 年 10 月 9 日中国证券监督管理委员会颁布的
《关于修改上市公司现金分红若干规定的决定》为研究背景,利用时间数列预测、OLS 模
型以及非线性模型,旨在考察 2004—2011 年沪深两市上市公司进行现金分红的情况。本文
发现扣除非正常性损益后以及经营现金流量为正的公司反应较强,而且第三年现金分红与公
司盈利能力正相关并起到决定性作用,进一步研究发现,证实了三年内公司的分红总额与公
司价值之间的倒 U 型关系,显示该规定在一定程度上产生了很好的预期效果。
关键词:现金分红;公司价值;国家规定;股利政策
15
中图分类号:

The Research on the Value Influence of the pany
Caused by Cash Dividend--Basing on the Empirical
Research of Mandatory Cash Dividend Rule
20
25
30
35
40
Li Yanxi, Sun Wenzhang
(Facutly of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024)
Abstract: The research on the relationship between cash dividend and corporate value makes great
contribution to regulate the dividend distribution behavior, and to promote the development of the
stock market positively. Basing on the <Decisions on Amending Some Provisions on Cash
Dividends by panies> released by CSRC on October 9,2008, the paper utilizes time
series prediction, OLS and nonlinear regression, to investigate the cash dividend situation of all
panies from Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed from 2004 to
2011. We find that panies of which profits after abnormal gains and losses and operating
cash flow is positive have strong reflection, be