新疆艾比湖流域生态环境演化的系统仿真研究.pdf

新疆艾比湖流域生态环境演化的系统仿真研究 新疆师范大学
硕士学位论文
新疆艾比湖流域生态环境演化的系统仿真研究
姓名:黄坤
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:自然地理学
指导教师:王哲
2009-06-03
中文摘要
中文摘要
水资源是自然资源中的重要一类,是关系到人类生存和社会发展的基本物质条
件,也是实现经济社会可持续发展的重要保证。新疆艾比湖生态环境中水资源是决定
绿洲存亡的关键因素。据资料显示,艾比湖湖面面积已由上世纪四十年代的1200km2,
萎缩到目前的 542km2,大风每年从艾比湖裸露湖底卷起沙盐480 万吨,严重影响着当
地居民的生活,这些都是由于流域内过度的开发和不合理利用的水资源造成的。
本文将系统动力学方法应用于艾比湖流域生态环境演化的研究中,以系统动力学
的理论、方法、模型为框架,综合运用计量地理学、可持续发展、水土资源承载力等
多种理论和方法,使用目前最新版本的 SD 建模软件 Vensim,建立艾比湖流域水资源
供需情况的系统动态仿真模型。模型分为有机联系在一起的三个组成部分:人口子系
统、资源子系统和环境子系统。
通过对艾比湖流域人口、资源、环境这三个系统的动态仿真模型进行模拟和预测,
为艾比湖流域的生态环境的恢复提出对策建议。

关键词:艾比湖流域、系统动力学模型、水资源、协调发展










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Abstract
Abstract
The water resources is one of the most important resource in natural, which is basic
physical conditions that relates the human survival and the social development; also the
important guarantee to realizes the economic society sustainable development. The
water resources is the key factor for the development of Oasis in the Xinjiang Ebinur Lake
ecological.
According to the material demonstrated that the Ebinur Lake level of the lake area from
the 1940s's 1200km2, withered to 542km2 at present. The gale curls up the sand salt
4,800,000 tons every year from the Ebinur Lake exposed Lake Bottom, all this seriously
influence local resident's life. These attributing to the excessive development and the
unreasonable use's water resources
This paper applies the systems dynamics method in the research of evolves in the
Ebinur Lake basin ecological environment, Taking systems dynamics's theory, the method,
the model as frames, Synthesis using measurement geography, sustainable development,
water and soil resources supporting capacity and so on many kinds of theories and
method,Using newest edition SD model software Vensim,Establishes the system
dynamic simulation model about the Ebinur Lake basin water resources supplying and
demanding situation .The model divided into anic connections in together three
constituent: P