中国未来20年人口发展趋势预测及分析.pdf

中国未来 20 年人口发展趋势预测及分析慕学玲(华北电力大学数理学院, 北京, 102206 ) Forecasting Analysis On Population In The Future 20 Years In China MU Xueling (Department of Mathematics and Physics,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206) Abstract : Because of the different of population basic condition and birth pattern in the city ,the town and the village of our country, this paper has divided our country population into three parts: the city, the town and the township population, and se parately established the Discrete dynamic population development model .When determined the child-bearing rate parameter of the model ,this paper has separate ly established the relational function of child-bearing rate and the time of the city, town and village with the regression analysis method. In addition, we fit the birth pattern with the probability density function of Chi-Square., and based on 2005 years data, the total quantity and the trend of development of our country population has carried on the forecast to our country in the future 20 years. The result indicated that our country population scale will present th e tendency which will rise to fall. Finally, we has given the corresponding analysis to the forecast tendency. KEY WORDS: Dynamic discrete population development model ,Total fertility rate , Growth mode 摘要:针对我国市镇乡人口的基本状况、生育模式的不同,本文将我国人口分为市、镇、乡三部分,分别建立了每一部分的动态离散