–andwhichdoesn’t–,andfewaspectsofnew-ventureexperiencewithhundredsofentrepreneurialstart-creationattractasmuchattentionasthebusinessups,businessplansranknohigherthan2––asapredictorofanewventure’ssuc-,infact,themoreelaboratelybusiness-plancontestsarespringingupacrossthecraftedthedocument,themorelikelytheventureUnitedStatesand,increasingly,,well,flop,’swrongwithmostbusinessplans?Thean-,,youwouldmuchinkonnumbersanddevotetoolittletothethinkthattheonlythingsstandingbetweenainformationthatreallymatterstointelligentin-would-,finan-glossyfive-colorcharts,abundleofmeticulous-pany–especiallyde-lookingspreadsheets,andadecadeofmonth-by-tailed,month-by-–’ArbeloffProfessorunknownstopredictrevenues,,,fewifanyentrepreneurscorrectlyantici-connectedwithmorethan50entrepreneurialventurespatehowmuchcapitalandtimewillberequiredasanadviser,investor,-,theyareyearcourseattheHarvardBusinessSchoolcalled“En-wildlyoptimistic,-trepreneurialFinance,”forwhichhehasdevelopedmorevestorsknowaboutthepaddingeffectandthereforethan100casesandnotes.
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