国际农产品价格波动对中国通货膨胀的影响研究.doc

第 10 卷第 3 期
2011 年 09 月

江西农业大学学报( 社会科学版)
Journal of Jiangxi Agricultural University

Vol. 10,No. 3
Sep. ,2011
文章编号:1671 - 6523( 2011) 03 - 0109 - 05
国际农产品价格波动
对中国通货膨胀的影响研究
贾

杉
( 长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安 710064)
摘要:抑制通货膨胀成为当前宏观调控的主要目标,对于通货膨胀的动因,目前很多研究认为是输入性通货膨
胀。利用 DAG 方法,从理论和实证角度分析国际农产品价格波动对国内通货膨胀的影响,结果发现影响并不
明显,其波动只能直接传导到国内的农副产品购进价格,间接传导到,这一研究为中国治理
通货膨胀提供理论依据。
关键词:国际农产品价格波动; 通货膨胀; 价格途径
中图分类号:F202
文献标志码:A
Fluctuations of International Agricultural Prices
and Its Impact on China’s Inflation
JIA SHan
( College of Economics and Management,CHang’an University,Xi’an 710064,CHina)
Abstract: Inflation Has currently e tHe maJor obJective of macroeconomic control. At present a great
amount of researcH agree tHat tHe reason for inflation lies in imported inflation. Using tHe DAG metHod,tHis
article analyzed tHe influence of international agricultural prices on domestic inflation from tHe tHeoretical and
empirical percept and found tHat tHe influence is not obvious,and tHat tHe fluctuation is only directly transmit-
ted to CHina’s sideline products’purcHase prices and indirectly to CHina’s CPI. THis study is expected to
provide some tHeory basis for inflation control.
Key words: international agricultural product; price fluctuation; inflation; price approacH
一、问题的提出
2010 年以来,中国的消费物价指数也不断攀
升,抑制通货膨胀成为当前宏观调控的重点。从
历史来看,通货膨胀不仅是宏观经济领域一个永
恒话题,而且也是关系社会发展