ContentsKeyEconomicIndicators 4UBSvsConsensus 5MarketThemes,InvestmentIdeasandKeyForecastsfor2020 6GlobalEconomics 8Thecarcycle,thetechcycle,theshalecycleandhowitallcametogetherina'perfect(tariff)storm' 10Willtheeasinginglobalfinancialconditionsleadtogrowthresurgence? 17GlobalConsumption—bendingorbreaking? 20Whoisthechampionofglobaljobcreation? 23Willthemanufacturing"Blob"swallownon-manufacturing? 28Inflation—likewatchingpaintdry? 33Istherestillpolicyspace?Morethanyouthink 37Outlook2020-2021 41Scenarioanalysis 46MarketsOverview:Themes&Trades 55ThemeI:UBSCycleClocksaysit'spastBetatime 59ThemeII:Policymakerswho'rewillingaren'table,thosewho'reable,aren'twilling 73ThemeIII:Thegravityofzero&theworldbeneath 82ThemeIV:Fattails,skinnypriceofprotection 91Equities 98Currencies 122Rates 140Credit 168EM 192Politicalcalendar 206EconomicRegionalPages 217USA&Canada 218LatinAmerica 237WesternEurope 267EmergingEurope 307China 336AsiaexChina 346Japan 376Australia&NewZealand 386GlobalEconomicResearchContacts 394GlobalStrategyResearchContacts mendationsandhistoricalperformance 397WewouldliketothankGarimaJaiswal,AdarshKurup,TulikaPoddar,DakshGupta,VamsiKrishna,SonamJagga,SagarikaAsraniandSarbarthoMukherjee,ourresearchsupportserviceprofessionals,fortheirassistanceinpreparingthisresearchreport.@+44-20-@+1-212-@+1-203-@+1-212-@+65-@+65-@+61-2-@+44-20-@+44-20-@+852-29718135KeyEconomicIndicatorsRealGDP1/ CPI(%avg)ount (%GDP)Fiscalbalance(%GDP)**2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2019F 2020F ------------
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