摘要 I 摘要近年来的网络业务流特性研究表明,多种不同类型的网络业务流不仅具有短相关特性,还呈现长相关特性或自相似性。正是这种长相关性给业务流的长期预测提供了可能性。……………………关键词:自相似,长相关, FARIMA ,建模,预测 Abstract II Abstract The recent researches work traffic have shown that many kinds of work traffic have both self-similarity and long-range dependence. It is the long-range dependence that long-term prediction work traffic is possible. ………………………… Keywords : self-similarity, long-range dependence, FARIMA, ………………目录 III 目录第一章引言................................................................................................................... 1 第二章长相关及自相似介绍....................................................................................... 2 自相似概念产生的背景....................................................................................... 2 长相关和自相似的定义及定理........................................................................... 3 自相似业务流 H参数的检测方法...................................................................... 3 时间-方差法( V-T ) .................................................................................. 4 第三章 FARIMA 模型介绍............................................................................................. 5 FARIMA 模型的定义.......................................................................................... 5 FARIMA ( p,d,q )过程的产生........................................................................... 5 第四章网络业务流的 FARIMA (p,d,q )模型拟合................................................... 6 分数差分算子的实现........................................................................................... 6 第?章结论及展望....................................................................................................... 7 参考文献........................................................................................................................... 8 致谢............................................................................................................................... 9 附录.................................................
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