中金09投资手册.pdf

中金 2009 投资策略年会
目录

1. 会议议程..................................................................................................................................5
Agenda

2. 政策“保八”解近忧.................................................................................................................11
哈继铭中金公司研究部,董事总经理
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook
HA Jiming, Managing Director, Research

3. 金融风暴席卷全球,世界经济同步衰退.............................................................................32
沈建光中金公司研究部,副总经理
Global Economy: Deep Recession Unavoidable Under Financial Crisis
SHEN Jianguang, Vice President, Research

4. A股探底之旅-控制仓位,兼顾行业................................................................................56
高挺中金公司研究部,副总经理
Where are A-shares Headed? A tricky balance between earning pressure and policy
expectations
GAO Ting, Vice President, Research

5. 2009 海外市场策略- 危中有“机”- 熊市中后期“再通胀”下的投资机会...................76
侯振海中金公司研究部,高级经理
Opportunity in Crisis - 2009 Investment Outlooks in Late Bear Market and Reflation
HOU Zhenhai, Senior Associate, Research

6. 主持人....................................................................................................................................95
邱劲中金公司研究部主管,董事总经理
Chairperson
QIU Jin, Manager Director, Head of Research

7. L型,U型还是W型?...........................................................................................................96
毛军华中金公司研究部,副总经理
L Shape, U Shape, or W Shape?
MAO Junhua, Vice President, Research

8. 9保险业 200 年投资策略,低利率的挑战.........................................................................117
周光中金公司研究部,副总经理
The Challenge of Low Interest Rates
ZHOU Guang, Vice President, Research

- 1 -
中金 2009 投资策略年会
9. 房地产行业 09 年度策略.....................................................................................................144
白宏炜中金公司研究部,副总经理
2009 Investment Strategy for Real Estate Sector
BAI Hongwei