大三学年论文.docx

大三学年论文.docx大三学年论文
基于偏最小二乘法分析我国房价的主要影响因素
姓名：郭祥
学院：商学院
班级：统计111
学号:119114271
指导教师：余明江
基于偏最小二乘法分析我国房价的主要影响因素
摘要
在房价H益增长的今天，使得越来越多的人关注屮国的这一现状。屮国房地 产的基础起步晚，再加上房价本身就与众多外部内部的因素息息相关，使得房价 的趋势所向和变化的幅度很难预测在一个准确的范围之内。偏最小二乘法 (partial least squares, PLS)是最小二乘法(least squares, LS)的一种拓展 的方式它利用系统屮的数据进行分解和筛选，提取对因变量解释新最强的综合变 量，剔除多重相关信息和无解释意义的信息，从而克服了变量多重共线性在系统 建模屮的不良作用。本文通过对影响房价变动的主要因素进行定量分析，并且在 众多数据的基础之上构造出房价与这些重要因素之间的预测建模。在文章的最后 得出结论，对房价产牛主要影响的因素包括了：城镇居民平均可支配收入，五年 以上住房公积金贷款利率，全国房地产开发投资额，土地交易价格指数，建筑材 料购进价格指数。前三个因素都是和居民息息相关的，后三种因素则是开发商开 发房产的成本的总体现。
关键词：商品房平均销售价格城镇居民平均可支配收入 偏最小二乘冋归
Abstract
With the house prices rising rapidly, more and more people pay attention to this situation in China・ Considering short development of Chinese real estate market and the price itself with many external and internal factors are closely related, The trend of prices to changes in amplitude and difficult to predict in an accurate range .Partial least squares (partial least squares, PLS) is the least squares (least squares, LS) an extension of the way the system data are decomposed and screening, extraction of the dependent variable to explain the new variables the strongest, eliminating the multiple related information and no interpretation of the significance of information, thereby overcoming the multiple variables linear adverse effects in system modeling. This paper makes a quantitative analysis on the main factors affecting the price changes, and the prediction model between produce prices and these important factors on the basis of numerous data. The conclusion of this article is the main affect factors on the price includes: the disposable income of residents, more than five years of housing accumulation fund loan interest rates, the national real estate development investment, land transactions price index, building materials purchasing price index. The first three factors are closely related and residents, the latter three factors is the cost of real estate developers.
Keywords : the averag